The Never-Ending Winter Continues for Southern Ontario; Snowy System Could Dump Up to 25cm by Tuesday
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Residents across Southern Ontario, especially in the snowbelt regions, have certainly had their fair share of winter weather this season. From intense snow squalls back in December to the crippling ice storm that hit parts of Central Ontario just last month, it's no wonder that many are ready to say goodbye to winter.
Unfortunately, it seems that Mother Nature didn’t get the memo. Spring-like weather remains out of sight for at least the next week. Instead, the region is facing below-seasonal temperatures, with many areas struggling to reach the freezing mark during the day. On top of that, a fast-moving weather disturbance is currently affecting Northeastern Ontario with heavy snow. This system is expected to push into Southern Ontario late Monday as a cold front makes its way through the region.
Snowfall will intensify overnight and continue into Tuesday morning. The heaviest bands are expected across northern portions of Central Ontario and through the Ottawa Valley. Snowfall totals in these areas could easily exceed 15 cm, with some locations possibly seeing as much as 25 cm.
Elsewhere in Southern Ontario, lake enhancement and lake effect snow behind the system could lead to locally higher amounts—anywhere from 5 to 15 cm is possible around Lake Huron and along the southern shores of Georgian Bay.
Strong wind gusts of up to 80 km/h are also expected Monday evening into the early overnight hours around Georgian Bay, Lake Huron, and parts of Central Ontario. These gusts may create blowing snow and significantly reduce visibility at times.
More concerning, though, is the impact these winds could have on restoration efforts in areas still reeling from last month’s devastating ice storm. With nearly 50,000 Hydro One customers still without power after 10 days, additional outages are possible as the already fragile infrastructure struggles under the pressure of these gusty conditions.
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
As of Monday evening, heavy snow continues to fall across the Sudbury and North Bay regions, both of which have seen a significant dumping of snow throughout the day. By the time conditions begin to improve later this evening, localized snowfall totals will likely surpass 20 cm.
Further south, a sharp cold front is pushing a line of heavy snow across Southern Ontario over the next few hours. Along with the sudden drop in temperatures, this front could bring a quick burst of intense snowfall, leading to brief whiteout conditions and rapid accumulation.
Temperatures are still hovering just above freezing ahead of the front, which should help limit how much of the snow sticks at first, as the wet snow may melt upon contact with the relatively warm ground.
ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS- MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
Another concern this evening will be the development of strong wind gusts near Lake Simcoe and extending into parts of the Golden Horseshoe. Wind speeds could reach 60 to 80 km/h in localized areas.
While those wind speeds wouldn’t normally cause widespread issues, the combination of gusty winds and heavy snow could lead to pockets of blowing snow and reduced visibility, especially on the roads.
This area is also still recovering from the recent ice storm, with ongoing power restoration efforts in regions like Simcoe County, Peterborough, and the Kawartha Lakes. The added strain from tonight’s strong winds could cause further damage to the already weakened power grid in those communities.
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
After midnight, the focus of the heaviest snow will shift eastward into the Ottawa Valley. Persistent, moderate to heavy snow is expected across the region, especially in and around the City of Ottawa. One key area we’ll be closely monitoring is just west of Ottawa, where forecast models are showing the potential for a pocket of very heavy snowfall.
Communities including Algonquin Park, Barry’s Bay, Pembroke, and Petawawa could be directly impacted by this locally intense band of snow. If it shifts slightly east, it may sneak into Ottawa itself—something that could have a major effect on the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall rates in this band may exceed 5 cm per hour, leading to near-whiteout conditions.
Additionally, more localized lake-effect snow bands could develop off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay early Tuesday. Based on current guidance, one of these bands may impact parts of Huron and Perth counties, with a small chance of reaching the London area, though whether or not London sees any snow will depend on exactly where the band sets up. Some weaker snow activity is also expected near the southern shores of Georgian Bay, including places like Owen Sound, Meaford, and Collingwood.
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE/intensity - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
By Tuesday morning, snowfall will begin to taper off from west to east across the region. The Ottawa Valley will continue to see steady snow past sunrise, although it should begin to lighten up by early afternoon.
Lingering lake effect snow flurries may continue near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, but are also expected to wind down by late morning as the system finally pulls away.
ESTIMATED WIND CHILL - MAP FROM WEATHERBELL
In addition to the snow, Tuesday will bring a blast of bitterly cold Arctic air to much of Southern Ontario. This late-season cold snap will make it feel especially harsh for those heading out in the morning. Once the wind chill is factored in, it could feel like the -20s across parts of Central Ontario.
Make sure to dress warmly, especially if you've already switched to a spring wardrobe. It might be time to dig out that heavy winter coat once again.
The frigid temperatures also pose an added risk for anyone still without power following the ice storm. Be sure to check in on friends, family, and neighbours who may be vulnerable to the cold, and if needed, make use of warming centres set up in the hardest-hit communities.
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The highest snowfall totals from this system are expected in the northern sections of Central and Eastern Ontario, including places like Sudbury, North Bay, northern Muskoka, Algonquin Park, Pembroke, Renfrew, and Ottawa. These areas are likely to receive 15 to 25 cm of snow in total, including the accumulation that began earlier on Monday.
Elsewhere in Central Ontario and extreme Eastern Ontario, along with areas east of Lake Huron, snowfall totals are expected to fall in the 5 to 15 cm range. The wide range is due to uncertainty about how much snow will stick, as the heaviest snowfall is forecast while temperatures hover near or just above freezing. Affected areas include Grand Bend, Goderich, Kincardine, Grey-Bruce, Collingwood, Simcoe County, Muskoka, Bancroft, Brockville, and Cornwall.
For much of Southern Ontario, less than 5 cm is expected, with the Golden Horseshoe likely seeing no more than a dusting. In Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Chatham, and Sarnia, little to no accumulation is expected from this system.
