Severe Storms Possible in Alberta & Saskatchewan Saturday with Tornado and Funnel Cloud Risk
/The cluster of severe thunderstorms that crossed through Alberta yesterday evening and overnight has been weakening as they have continued to track through Southern and Central Saskatchewan this morning. On the backside of these storms, there should be sufficient clearing in order for more severe thunderstorms to develop throughout Central and Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan.
Thunderstorm development should begin in the early to mid-afternoon, with scattered storms in Southern Alberta and into Southwestern Saskatchewan. The majority of these storms in Alberta will possibly become severe, but they aren’t expected to be too strong as they track eastward throughout the afternoon. These storms could bring some strong gusts, small hail, and heavy rain to areas in their path today.
Storms that could form to the north of Medicine Hat, however, and into Saskatchewan are expected to be the stronger, with the possibility to produce damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h and hail as large as Timbits, along with heavy downpours.
The possibility of strong storms developing to the west of Swift Current early this afternoon is worth noting. These particular storms could strengthen into a severe line that extends southward to the US border through the afternoon.
There is also the risk of a tornado or two forming during the early hours of these storms’ lives, in the late afternoon and the early evening, in an area that includes Shaunavon, Swift Current, Assiniboia and just into Moose Jaw. This risk does diminish as the line pushes eastward, with the storms expected to bring a strong wind and hail threat into Regina and to the east throughout the evening hours.
Overall, the intensity of storms will be dependent on how much daytime heating can occur and how much moisture can be funnelled northward following this morning’s active weather.
The dashed line outlines the funnel cloud risk from environment Canada
Back in Alberta, more storms could kick off in the Foothills a bit later in the afternoon. These storms will likely be more organized than the scattered pop-up storms expected earlier in the afternoon. There is a chance of them becoming severe in the evening as they track eastward through Calgary and areas to the south, with the possibility of producing strong wind gusts, toonie-sized hail, and heavy rain which could result in more localized flooding.
There is also the possibility that funnel clouds could develop today southeast of Edmonton, from Camrose to Oyen. It’s important to remember that funnel clouds have the potential to touch down as weak landspout tornadoes so be alert if you’re in this area today.