'Snow Day' Forecast: Extra Long Weekend for Some Students in Ontario as Squall Likely to Cancel Buses on Friday

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Intense snow squall activity is forecasted to bring a significant amount of snow to parts of the snowbelt region east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay overnight and into Friday morning.

These squalls are expected to persist through the morning hours, creating hazardous conditions with near-zero visibility on the roads. Given these dangerous travel conditions, it is highly likely that many school boards will opt to cancel buses for Friday. For some areas, this would mark the second snow day in a row, as buses were already canceled on Thursday.

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The highest confidence for school bus cancellations remains in areas like Grey-Bruce, Avon Maitland (Goderich), Simcoe (North), Trillium (Muskoka), and Near North (Parry Sound). With active snow squall warnings in place and the potential for over 50 cm of snow to accumulate overnight, there’s little doubt that buses will be unable to operate safely in these regions. We’re assigning a 90% probability of cancellations in these zones.

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Outside the core snowbelt areas, the situation becomes less certain. For locations such as Listowel, Simcoe (West), and Trillium (Haliburton), we estimate a 75% chance of cancellations. While they are fairly likely, it’s not a guarantee. Regions including the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB), Wellington, Dufferin, Simcoe (Central), Trillium (Kawartha), and East Parry Sound have a 50% chance of seeing cancellations, as snowfall in these areas is expected to be less intense or more variable.

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For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations on Friday are unlikely since the snow squall activity will remain localized to the snowbelt. This means a sharp drop-off in probabilities as you move farther away from the areas most heavily affected.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Blizzard Conditions on Thursday Likely to Cancel Many School Buses in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt

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Snow squalls are forecast to develop late Wednesday and persist into Thursday, bringing substantial snowfall to areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Strong wind gusts are expected to accompany the intense snowfall, prompting Environment Canada to issue a rare blizzard warning for parts of Grey, Bruce, and Huron counties. Meanwhile, other regions are under a strongly worded snow squall warning, with predictions of snowfall accumulation potentially reaching up to 80 cm in localized areas.

Given the expected hazardous conditions, it’s highly unlikely that school buses will be able to operate safely in the affected areas on Thursday. As a result, it is anticipated that many school boards will opt to cancel school buses and might even decide to close schools entirely, particularly in regions under a blizzard warning.

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The highest likelihood of a ‘snow day’ applies to the entire Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB), Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB) - North Huron, Simcoe County District School Board (North and West weather zones), Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Muskoka region), and Near North District School Board (NNDSB - Parry Sound area).

These areas, which are under snow squall or blizzard warnings, have a greater than 90% chance of bus cancellations.

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Surrounding regions, including the remainder of Avon Maitland District School Board (southern zones), Simcoe County District School Board (Central and South weather zones), Student Transportation Services of Wellington Dufferin (STWDSTS), and Trillium Lakelands District School Board (Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions), have a 50–75% chance of snow day cancellations.

Although these areas are still under warnings, they are not expected to experience the most severe conditions. While bus cancellations are still likely, the confidence level isn’t as high as in the core impact zones.

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The probability of cancellations drops significantly outside the snowbelt, as the squalls are expected to remain highly localized. Eastern Ontario may be the only exception outside the snowbelt which has a low chance (10–25%) of cancellations.

While icy road conditions from an overnight freeze following earlier rainfall are possible, it is unlikely to be severe enough to prompt widespread cancellations. However, the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely on Tuesday in Central and Eastern Ontario

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Following Monday's freezing rain that brought icy conditions across Central and Eastern Ontario, the risk of freezing drizzle persists through the overnight hours.

Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing drizzle advisories, warning that the slick conditions could extend into early Tuesday morning. With temperatures remaining near or just below the freezing mark overnight, untreated surfaces are expected to stay icy well into the morning.

As a result, it’s likely that many school boards, particularly in rural areas, will opt to cancel school bus services on Tuesday morning due to the hazardous road conditions.

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The highest confidence for cancellations is in rural Eastern Ontario, where freezing drizzle is expected to still be occurring at the time decisions are made. These areas have been given a 90% chance of an “ice day.”

In the City of Ottawa, the likelihood is slightly lower at 75%, as the school board tends to be more conservative with cancellations in urban settings. However, the overnight icing should still be significant enough to prompt cancellations.

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In Central Ontario, the Parry Sound and North Bay region has the highest probability of cancellations at 90%. The school board in this area is typically more weather-sensitive, and the lingering freezing drizzle almost guarantees that buses will be cancelled.

The situation becomes more uncertain for Muskoka, Haliburton, and Kawartha Lakes. Here, the freezing drizzle is expected to taper off shortly after midnight, but icy road conditions are likely to persist into the morning, with temperatures remaining near freezing.

After Monday’s decision to proceed with buses in some areas backfired for Trillium Lakelands—forcing adjustments to afternoon routes—the school board is likely to exercise more caution on Tuesday to avoid similar issues.

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South and west of these regions, the chances of cancellations decrease significantly. Freezing drizzle is expected to end earlier in the evening, and temperatures are forecast to rise overnight, mitigating icy conditions. While cancellations cannot be entirely ruled out—particularly in Simcoe County—most other areas are unlikely to see disruptions to bus services on Tuesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: Freezing Rain Threatens to Cancel School Buses on Monday in Parts of Southern Ontario

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Freezing rain is forecast to impact parts of Central and Eastern Ontario starting Monday morning and continuing throughout the day.

With Environment Canada issuing freezing rain warnings that highlight potential road hazards on Monday, it is highly likely that many school boards in the affected regions will choose to cancel bus services as a precaution.

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The highest likelihood of an “ice day” is focused on areas northwest of the GTA, particularly in higher elevations, as well as regions around Lake Simcoe and into Eastern Ontario north of the Lake Ontario shoreline.

For school boards in these areas, there is a 75% to 90% chance of bus cancellations. While confidence in cancellations is high, there remains a small possibility that some boards might take a gamble due to the later expected start of the freezing rain. This uncertainty has kept the chances from being universally set at 90%.

The only area where we feel a solid 90% confidence level is the southern portion of the Tri-Board district. Historically, this region has been very proactive in response to any Environment Canada winter weather warnings, so the presence of a freezing rain warning is likely enough to prompt cancellations there.

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Further north, including Muskoka, Haliburton, and the Ottawa Valley, messy weather may not arrive until later in the day. As of now, Environment Canada has not issued freezing rain warnings for these areas, which lowers the likelihood of bus cancellations.

Probabilities range from 25% to 50%, with just a 10% chance in the City of Ottawa. Urban cancellations in Ottawa typically require more severe conditions, so the lower chance is consistent with their past responses.

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In contrast, Southwestern Ontario and the GTA are expected to see mainly rain with minimal freezing rain, making school bus cancellations in these regions highly unlikely.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Will London Area Students Ever Go to School? Likely Not Until Next Week!

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Intense snow squalls have developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Thursday, delivering significant snowfall to areas southeast of the lakes. This activity is expected to persist through the overnight hours, gradually weakening early Friday morning. However, snowfall totals in the hardest-hit regions are likely to exceed 50 cm by the time the squalls subside.

Given the expected heavy accumulation overnight, it is highly likely that some school boards in the affected regions will decide to keep buses off the roads for yet another day.

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The highest probability of cancellations will again be concentrated along the southeastern shoreline of Lake Huron. This includes the southern portion of the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB) and the Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB), which covers the City of London.

There is a 90% likelihood of bus cancellations in these areas, as the combination of the existing snowpack and additional overnight snowfall will almost certainly create treacherous travel conditions for the morning commute.

The remainder of the Lake Huron shoreline, including the northern section of the AMDSB, the entire Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB), and the “West” weather zone for the Simcoe County school board, has a 50–75% chance of cancellations.

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For school boards east of Georgian Bay, including the NNDSB (Parry Sound), Trillium Lakelands (Muskoka), and the “North” weather zone for Simcoe County, we have assigned a 50–75% chance of cancellations. Confidence here is slightly lower because the snow squalls in these areas are expected to intensify later in the day.

As mentioned in Environment Canada's snow squall watch, conditions will likely worsen in the afternoon, requiring school boards to make proactive decisions in the morning. This is particularly true for Parry Sound, where the school board has a history of erring on the side of caution when adverse weather is expected.

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Outside the snowbelt regions, the likelihood of a snow day is almost non-existent, as the heavy snow will remain highly localized to areas directly impacted by the squalls.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Yet Another Chance of School Bus Cancellations on Thursday in Southwestern Ontario

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Snow continues to linger across Southern Ontario as of Wednesday evening, but it is expected to taper off as the system exits the province overnight. However, snow squalls are forecast to develop along the southeastern shorelines of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, potentially creating hazardous travel conditions.

Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall warnings, which could prompt some school boards to keep buses off the roads for yet another day.

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The highest probability of school bus cancellations is along the entire eastern shoreline of Lake Huron, including all regions within the Bluewater District School Board (BWDSB) and the Avon Maitland District School Board (AMDSB). This area is almost certain to experience a “snow day” on Thursday, with poor travel conditions making it difficult to see how buses could safely operate.

The Thames Valley District School Board (TVDSB), covering Middlesex, London, Oxford, and Elgin, also has a strong chance of cancellations, with probabilities ranging from 75% to 90%. The same applies to the Lambton zone of the Lambton Kent District School Board (LKDSB).

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Around Georgian Bay, there is a 75% chance of cancellations for the “West” weather zone of Simcoe County, where snow squall activity is expected to be most intense. The “Central” and “North” weather zones have a 50% chance, as it is less certain whether conditions will be severe enough to lead to cancellations.

To the east of Georgian Bay, the snow is expected to taper off overnight, offering a bit of a reprieve. However, the Parry Sound region still has a 50% chance of cancellations due to the potential for blowing snow, which could create hazardous conditions. This school board also tends to be particularly cautious when it comes to weather-related disruptions.

For the Muskoka region, there is a slight chance of cancellations. If schools do reopen, Thursday would mark the first day back for much of Southern Muskoka since last Thursday.

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For the rest of Southern Ontario, widespread cancellations are not anticipated. However, we have assigned a broad very low to low chance of cancellations across Eastern and Central Ontario, just in case blowing snow results in some unexpected disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Heavy Snow on Wednesday May Cancel Some School Buses in Southern Ontario

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An Alberta Clipper is set to move into Southern Ontario early Wednesday, bringing the potential for 20-30 cm of snow in some areas. Snow squalls will also persist northeast of Georgian Bay, as well as near Lakes Erie and Ontario, during the morning hours.

The anticipated impact on Wednesday morning’s commute, combined with potential disruptions to the afternoon commute, will likely lead some school boards to cancel school buses. While there is still some uncertainty about how widespread these cancellations will be, certain areas have a higher probability of being affected.

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There is a 90% chance of a “snow day” for the Bruce Peninsula and areas northeast of Georgian Bay. This includes the entire Near North District School Board (NNDSB), which is known to be highly cautious regarding weather conditions. The expected snow squalls in these areas are likely to meet the criteria for bus cancellations.

For the rest of Central Ontario, parts of Eastern Ontario, and rural areas of Southwestern Ontario, the probability of school bus cancellations ranges from 50% to 75%. Confidence is slightly lower in these regions because much of the snow is expected to fall after morning cancellation decisions are made. Additionally, Environment Canada has gone with winter travel advisories, which may not carry enough weight for some school boards to cancel buses proactively.

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The likelihood of cancellations increases in areas forecasted to experience snow squalls or where blowing snow advisories are in effect. This includes regions along the shorelines of Lakes Huron, Ontario, and Erie, where reduced visibility and challenging travel conditions are expected.

In contrast, urban school boards in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are unlikely to cancel buses, as the forecasted conditions are not expected to meet the higher thresholds typically required for urban cancellations. We’ve assigned a slim 5-10% chance to account for the possibility of an unexpected decision by one of the boards, but this remains highly improbable.

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Similarly, Deep Southwestern Ontario—including Sarnia, Windsor, and Chatham—is unlikely to see school bus cancellations, as these areas are forecasted to receive less than 5 cm of snow from this system. Conditions there are not expected to be severe enough to warrant disruptions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Tuesday Is Likely to Bring Another Round of School Bus Cancellations in Southwestern Ontario

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The seemingly endless potential for snow squalls is set to persist through Monday evening and into Tuesday morning. This round will primarily affect the eastern and southern shorelines of Lake Huron, where an additional 10 to 25 cm of snow is expected overnight. These conditions will likely lead to more school bus cancellations in areas already impacted on Monday.

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.Meanwhile, the cleanup continues in the Muskoka region following the intense snow squalls that dumped over 100 cm of snow on Bracebridge and Gravenhurst over the weekend. The Trillium Lakelands District School Board has announced that ONLY schools in Gravenhurst will remain closed on Tuesday, while buses serving the Bracebridge area will not be running.

Schools and transportation services in Huntsville will operate as usual. We’ve marked this region as "Already Cancelled" on our map, as the school board rarely issues sub-regional cancellations. For precise details, check the official announcement linked here.

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For weather-related cancellations elsewhere, the strongest likelihood of a "snow day" is in AMDSB (Exeter), with a 90% probability due to expected intense snowfall accumulation overnight.

Surrounding areas, including BWDSB (Southampton and Kincardine), AMDSB (Goderich and Stratford), TVDSB (Middlesex and London), and LKDSB (Lambton), have a 50/50 to strong chance of school bus cancellations, as these regions could see notable snowfall and challenging travel conditions.

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There’s also a 50/50 chance of cancellations in BWDSB (Meaford) and the "West" weather zone of Simcoe County due to potential snow squall activity off Georgian Bay. However, there is less confidence in whether the snowfall will be intense enough to disrupt transportation.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations on Tuesday are unlikely. That said, attention is already shifting to Wednesday, as a developing weather system could bring widespread snowfall accumulation, with the potential to significantly impact some areas.

This may lead to school bus cancellations midweek. Stay tuned for our ‘snow day’ forecast on Tuesday afternoon!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Widespread School Bus Cancellations Likely on Monday Around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay

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Intense snow squalls continue to pound the snowbelt regions surrounding Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, persisting through the weekend and expected to last into Monday. Environment Canada has issued widespread snow squall warnings, forecasting an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by Tuesday.

Given these conditions, it seems highly likely that many school boards in the hardest-hit areas will cancel buses on Monday morning. Travel will remain hazardous throughout the day, making it nearly impossible to operate school buses safely.

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The highest confidence for cancellations lies along the Eastern Lake Huron and Southern Georgian Bay shorelines, affecting boards like AMDSB (Goderich and Exeter) and BWDSB (Kincardine and Meaford). In these regions, there is a 90% chance of a "snow day" on Monday.

For Trillium (Muskoka), there’s also a 90% likelihood of cancellations. While no significant additional snowfall is expected overnight, the extensive cleanup from previous snowfalls and the continued closure of the major highway in the region will likely make bus travel unfeasible.

UPDATE (6:15 PM): Trillium Lakelands DSB has announced that schools in the Muskoka region will be closed on Monday.

Similarly, NNDSB (Parry Sound) and Trillium (Haliburton) face potential cancellations, but with lower probabilities of 50% and 25%, respectively, as these areas were not as severely impacted.

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Surrounding areas, including TVDSB (Middlesex), AMDSB (Stratford and Listowel), BWDSB (Southampton, Owen Sound, and Hanover), and the "West" weather zone for Simcoe County, have a 75% chance of seeing buses canceled due to lingering squall activity and ongoing poor travel conditions.

Outside the core snowbelt regions, the likelihood of cancellations decreases significantly. For the "North" and "Central" weather zones in Simcoe County, there’s a 50/50 chance of a snow day. While the brunt of the lake-effect snow is expected to remain closer to Georgian Bay, Environment Canada’s snow squall warnings could still prompt precautionary cancellations.

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The chances are also 50/50 in London and Oxford County, where snow squall activity is less certain to intensify enough to justify cancellations. Urban boards like these often have higher thresholds for cancellations compared to rural regions.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are unlikely, as the worst conditions are expected to remain confined to the typical snowbelt areas.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Snow Day' Forecast: Snow Squalls Likely to Cancel School Buses on Friday in Parts of Central and Southwestern Ontario

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A multi-day snow squall event is set to begin Thursday evening, targeting regions east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Intense snowfall rates exceeding 5 cm per hour, coupled with near-zero visibility, are expected to make travel nearly impossible throughout Friday and well into the weekend.

Environment Canada has already issued strongly worded snow squall warnings for the Parry Sound, Muskoka, and Grey-Bruce regions. These warnings highlight the potential for road closures due to hazardous conditions.

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Based on these forecasts, it’s highly likely that school boards in the affected areas will cancel school buses on Friday. In fact, given the severity of the conditions, some school closures may also occur.

Areas Most Likely to See Bus Cancellations
The following school boards are almost guaranteed to experience a “snow day” on Friday: TLDSB (Muskoka), NNDSB (Parry Sound), and BWDSB (Bruce Peninsula). This prediction aligns with the areas currently under snow squall warnings and the forecasted weather conditions during Friday morning’s decision-making window.

There is also a strong 75% chance of school bus cancellations for Southampton and Kincardine, part of BWDSB, as well as for East Parry Sound under NNDSB.

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Outside of these core areas, the likelihood of school bus cancellations decreases significantly. We estimate a 50% chance for the following areas: TLDSB (Haliburton), Simcoe County (North Weather Zone), and the inland portions of BWDSB, which include Hanover, Owen Sound, and Meaford.

A similar probability applies to RDSB (Manitoulin Island), where snow squall warnings are in effect. However, the rest of RDSB, including Sudbury, is unlikely to see cancellations as the main squall activity is not expected to reach those areas.

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For surrounding school boards across Central Ontario and parts of Southwestern Ontario, the chances of school bus cancellations are slim, ranging between 5% and 25%.

While most of the impacts will remain concentrated in the snowbelt regions, there’s always a small possibility of localized cancellations depending on shifting conditions.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

'Ice Day' Forecast: First School Bus Cancellations of the Season Possible on Tuesday in Central & Eastern Ontario

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The first significant blast of winter weather has arrived in Southern Ontario, bringing freezing rain and the possibility of the season's first school bus cancellations.

Freezing rain is expected to develop late Monday night across Central and Eastern Ontario, persisting into the early hours of Tuesday morning. While significant ice accumulation is not anticipated, even a light glaze of ice could create slippery road conditions in some areas.

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Environment Canada has issued freezing rain warnings for areas stretching from Muskoka through Bancroft and into the Ottawa Valley. These warnings are expected to remain in place until temperatures climb above freezing later Tuesday morning. As a result, some school boards in the affected regions may choose to cancel buses for Tuesday morning.

Areas Most Likely to See Bus Cancellations
The highest likelihood of cancellations exists in rural school boards that are historically more cautious during severe winter weather.

  • North Hastings, North Lennox & Addington (Tri-Board), and Renfrew (Madawaska area): These areas have a 90% chance of bus cancellations, given their sensitivity to icy conditions and their placement in the freezing rain warning zone.

  • Renfrew, Tri-Board (North Frontenac), TLDSB (Haliburton), and NNDSB (East Parry Sound): These regions are slightly less likely to see cancellations, with a 75% chance of buses being pulled off the roads.

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Moderate Risk Regions

  • TLDSB (Muskoka), NNDSB (Parry Sound & North Bay), and UCDSB: These areas have a 50/50 chance of cancellations. While the freezing rain threat is lower here, the presence of a warning may still lead to precautionary measures to cancel school buses.

Lower Risk Regions

  • Southern Tri-Board, KPR (Peterborough), and TLDSB (Kawartha): These areas have a 25% chance of cancellations, as the freezing rain is expected to remain mostly north and east of these regions.

  • City of Ottawa: Urban school boards like Ottawa are less likely to see cancellations due to the limited ice accumulation forecasted in city areas. We have given them a 25% chance.

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No Cancellations Expected Outside Warning Zones
For the rest of Southern Ontario, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, with only rain forecasted overnight. As such, weather-related school bus cancellations are unlikely in these regions.

Stay tuned for updates on school board decisions early Tuesday morning, and take care if you're traveling in areas impacted by freezing rain!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures. It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.