January 29, 2026

‘Snow/Cold Day’ Forecast: Wind Chills Near -40°C Could Cancel Some School Buses Across Southern Ontario on Friday

January 29, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***NOTE: YOU CAN CLICK ON THE MAP TO OPEN A ZOOMABLE IMAGE***

While snow squall activity around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay has underperformed so far on Thursday, allowing for fewer school bus cancellations than initially expected, the snow squall threat is not over just yet. Additional lake effect activity is expected to persist overnight and into Friday morning, keeping the door open for further disruptions.

On top of that, a surge of Arctic air will settle across Southern Ontario overnight. Temperatures in some areas are expected to fall toward -30°C, with wind chills making it feel closer to -40°C by Friday morning. That combination of lingering snow squalls and extreme cold could be enough to prompt at least some school boards to keep buses off the roads on Friday.

It’s also worth noting that many school boards have a PA Day scheduled for Friday. If that applies to your region, consider it a guaranteed cold day and enjoy sleeping through the worst of the wind chills. However, for the purpose of this forecast, we are treating Friday as a normal school day across all boards, as PA Day schedules vary and not every board follows the same calendar.

For school boards that are operating, our strongest confidence for bus cancellations is focused along the Lake Huron snowbelt. This includes Kincardine and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, along with northern Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board.

These areas are most likely to see renewed snow squall activity overnight if the bands are able to organize. However, given the inconsistent model performance with this lake effect setup, confidence is not high enough to place these regions in the highest category. As a result, we have kept them below the 90 percent threshold.

For the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding the Bruce Peninsula, as well as the rest of the Avon Maitland District School Board and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. In these areas, the risk comes from a combination of scattered snow squall impacts and the potential for extreme cold near cancellation thresholds.

A broad swath of Central and Eastern Ontario has also been placed in the 50 percent category due primarily to the cold. Typically, air temperatures near minus 30 degrees or wind chills approaching minus 40 are required before most school boards consider cancelling buses due to cold alone.

Current forecasts suggest many areas may come within just a few degrees of those thresholds, but could fall just short. Because of that uncertainty and the tendency for models to occasionally underestimate cold air outbreaks, we’ve gone with a 50 percent chance that could swing either way.

This 50 percent zone includes all regions covered by the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the northern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. This also extends into higher elevation areas of Southwestern Ontario, including Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

For a slight chance of bus cancellations, we have included the remainder of the Renfrew County District School Board, the Upper Canada District School Board, the southern sections of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, northern Durham Region, the remaining Simcoe County District School Board weather zones, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, and Oxford and Middlesex counties under the Thames Valley District School Board.

These areas are either more urban in nature or are expected to see slightly warmer temperatures, which should keep them below cold day thresholds. However, if temperatures end up just a few degrees colder than forecast, a handful of surprise cancellations would not be out of the question.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains low. While it will be cold, temperatures and wind chills are not expected to reach the levels typically required for widespread cold-related cancellations in these areas.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 28, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students in Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt Could See Another Day of Bus Cancellations on Thursday

January 28, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/29/bus-cancellations

The story of the past few weeks across Southern Ontario has been relentless snow squall activity, leaving some communities with only a handful of actual school days during that stretch. Unfortunately for those hoping for a break, that pattern shows no real signs of ending just yet. Additional snow squall activity is expected to linger into Thursday, raising the likelihood of yet another snow day for parts of the region.

While this round of snow squalls is not expected to be as widespread as what we have seen over the last few days, regions east of Lake Huron will continue to deal with difficult travel conditions. Persistent bursts of snow, blowing snow, and reduced visibility are expected to remain an issue, particularly in areas that have already been repeatedly impacted and are still struggling to fully dig out.

Our highest confidence for school bus cancellations on Thursday is centred on Bruce County within the Bluewater District School Board. This includes Kincardine, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula. These areas sit squarely within the core snowbelt and are expected to continue seeing treacherous conditions into Thursday. With many rural routes still snow-covered and additional squalls possible, we have given this region a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

Surrounding areas also carry a strong likelihood of cancellations, though confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt. North Huron County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, have been assigned a 75 percent chance. Conditions in these areas are likely to be poor enough to justify cancellations, but there is more uncertainty given that the most persistent squall activity may remain closer to the Lake Huron shoreline north of Kincardine.

In our toss-up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron County and northern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Hanover within the Bluewater District School Board, and the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board. These regions have been given a 50 percent chance, as outcomes will depend heavily on how far inland and how far south the snow squall bands are able to stretch during the morning and early afternoon.

Farther away from the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off further. We have assigned a 25 percent chance to southern Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones. Snow squalls may occasionally brush these areas through Thursday, with Simcoe County being the most likely to see brief impacts. However, given the Simcoe County District School Board’s track record of maintaining a high threshold for cancellations and often running buses despite active alerts, we are leaning toward buses operating in most of these areas.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This region has seen substantial snowfall over the past several days from repeated snow squall activity. While the squalls themselves are expected to taper off by Thursday morning, backroads may still be in rough shape, which keeps the door open for potential cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Thursday remains low. Most regions outside of the Lake Huron snowbelt are not expected to see significant impacts from this round of squalls, and conditions should be manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 27, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Another Likely Day of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

January 27, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/28/bus-cancellations

Widespread snow squall activity has developed off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay through the day on Tuesday and shows no signs of letting up as we head into the overnight hours and into Wednesday. These squalls are producing bursts of heavy snow, significantly reduced visibility and areas of blowing snow, creating very hazardous travel conditions in the snowbelt.

Localized snowfall totals of up to 20 to 30 cm are possible in the most persistent bands by Wednesday. With snow continuing to fall and winds remaining gusty, it is almost certain that school buses will be unable to operate safely in the hardest hit regions on Wednesday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day remains focused on areas east of Lake Huron, where the most intense and long-lasting squalls are expected. This includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, along with Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core of the snowbelt and feature a high number of rural routes that are especially vulnerable to drifting and whiteout conditions. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday.

A strong likelihood tier follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance of cancellations for Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board. While these areas are expected to see snow squall impacts, they sit slightly farther from the most intense activity. In the case of Simcoe County, the school board has shown a higher threshold for cancellations this season and has run buses in similar conditions before, which keeps confidence slightly lower despite the expectation of poor travel conditions.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included the Simcoe Central weather zone, Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are currently under snow squall warnings, but confidence is lower on how severe conditions will be during the morning bus run. Depending on how quickly squalls weaken or shift overnight, some of these areas may attempt to run buses despite the active alerts.

We have also placed Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services in the 50 percent category. This region has been impacted by snow squalls earlier today, and while snowfall has tapered off, road conditions may remain questionable into Wednesday morning, especially on secondary and rural routes.

Outside of the core snowbelt, probabilities drop off more quickly. A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and Belleville along with South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. Most of these areas are not expected to see significant snowfall, but localized blowing snow or lingering poor road conditions could still allow for a few surprise cancellations.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Golden Horseshoe, Deep Southwestern Ontario and much of Eastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations on Wednesday remains low. These regions are expected to see minimal impacts from the lake effect activity, with conditions remaining manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 26, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Chance of School Bus Cancellations Return to Southern Ontario’s Snowbelt on Tuesday With Snow Squall Risk

January 26, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/27/bus-cancellations

After a disruptive snowstorm delivered Toronto’s largest single-day snowfall on record on Sunday, students across much of the Golden Horseshoe and Eastern Ontario saw widespread school bus cancellations and even school closures on Monday. But for communities closer to Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, it marked a return to normal, with students finally heading back to school after being off for much of the previous week in some areas.

Now that the main storm system has moved out of the region, attention turns back to lake effect snow. Snow squall activity is expected to redevelop across Southern Ontario’s snowbelt, bringing with it the renewed potential for school bus cancellations on Tuesday.

Localized snow squalls are forecast to develop tonight across the Bruce Peninsula and then extend northeast of Georgian Bay into the Parry Sound region through Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, these squalls are expected to gradually shift south of the region, but not before producing periods of heavy snow and poor visibility during the morning hours.

With snow squall warnings in place from Environment Canada, highlighting the risk of significant snowfall and reduced visibility, there is a strong chance that some of the hardest hit regions will experience another snow day on Tuesday.

Our highest confidence is in the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. This area is expected to see the most intense and persistent snow squall activity through the morning, making bus travel unsafe. As a result, we have assigned Parry Sound a 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations.

A strong likelihood follows closely behind, with a 75 percent chance assigned to the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. While the Bruce Peninsula is expected to see treacherous conditions, Bluewater has already experienced a high number of cancellations this season. Because of that, there remains a slight chance they may attempt to run buses if conditions are marginal early in the morning, keeping this region just below the highest tier.

Along the Lake Huron shoreline, including the remainder of Bruce County and extending into North Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, we have assigned a 50 percent chance. Snowfall totals here are not expected to be extreme, but strong wind gusts of 50 to 60 km/h could lead to areas of blowing snow and rapidly changing visibility. These conditions could go either way depending on how exposed routes are early Tuesday morning.

Farther inland, confidence drops off. Perth County, under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and all of Grey County within the Bluewater District School Board have been given a 25 percent chance. Winds are expected to weaken farther from the lakes, and snowfall intensity should be lower, making cancellations less likely but not impossible.

East of Georgian Bay, North Muskoka, under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, has been placed in the 50 percent category, as it currently sits under a snow squall warning. That said, TLDSB has a history of holding off on cancellations unless conditions are actively poor during the morning bus run, even when warnings are in effect. Because of that, confidence remains split. South Muskoka under TLDSB and North Bay within the Near North District School Board have been assigned a lower 25 percent chance.

Farther east, lake effect activity may also impact Northumberland County into the Belleville and Picton area. Environment Canada has issued a snow squall watch for this region from Tuesday morning into the evening. Because of that, we have given Belleville and Prince Edward County under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services a 50 percent chance of bus cancellations.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, as well as Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board. While it remains questionable whether conditions will be severe enough to prompt cancellations in these areas, these school boards tend to be more proactive when Environment Canada alerts are in place, which keeps the door open for possible decisions.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day on Tuesday is low to very low. Some regions that were hit hard by Sunday’s historic snowfall could still see lingering cleanup issues, but widespread cancellations for that reason appear unlikely.

In fact, the Toronto District School Board has already confirmed that schools will be open on Tuesday, despite Toronto being the hardest hit area from Sunday’s storm. With that in mind, it becomes increasingly questionable that other regions would cancel solely due to cleanup concerns if Toronto is able to reopen.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 25, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Many School Bus Cancellations & School Closures Likely on Monday as Southern Ontario Digs Out From Snowstorm

January 25, 2026/ Brennen Perry

***MAP UPDATED WITH ANNOUNCED CLOSURES AS OF 10:15 PM***

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/26/bus-cancellations

Original Forecast:

A massive snowstorm is currently bearing down on Southern Ontario, with a particular focus on the Greater Toronto Area. Snowfall totals in some parts of the region are expected to approach or even exceed 50 cm by the time the storm winds down late Sunday.

While the heaviest snow is expected to taper off several hours before the Monday morning commute, cleanup efforts will only just be getting underway. With such an extreme amount of snow on the ground, school bus cancellations and even school closures are close to a certainty across large portions of the region.

The greatest concern remains across the Golden Horseshoe, where strong lake enhancement is expected to significantly boost snowfall totals, as well as Eastern Ontario, where snow is forecast to linger into Monday morning.

In these regions, road conditions are expected to be extremely poor, with snow-covered and impassable routes likely during the morning hours. Because of this, we have assigned a 90 percent chance of a snow day on Monday.

This highest confidence zone includes the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, the Halton District School Board, the Peel District School Board, the Toronto District School Board, the southern portion of the Durham District School Board, Clarington and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, all areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services with the exception of North Hastings, and the Upper Canada District School Board.

Given the scale of this storm and the sheer volume of snow expected, it is difficult to see how buses could operate safely in these areas as crews work to dig out from the heaviest snowfall totals.

If there are any surprises within this highest confidence zone, they would most likely come from one or two of the more urban school boards within the Greater Toronto Area. In particular, parts of Durham Region or Hamilton could end up on the lower end of snowfall totals if lake enhancement underperforms locally. Even in that scenario, however, any decision to run buses would fall within the small remaining uncertainty already accounted for.

In the next tier, the probability of a snow day remains high, but confidence is slightly lower as outcomes will depend more heavily on how much snow falls outside of the core lake-enhanced zones. We have assigned a 75 percent chance to the Niagara District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, Oxford County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Hastings under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region and Renfrew County under the Renfrew County District School Board, and the Ottawa region.

Ottawa in particular is expected to see significant snowfall, but given the urban nature of the school board and its typically higher threshold for cancellations, there remains a small chance buses could still run if conditions improve faster than expected.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to the Greater Essex County District School Board, Chatham-Kent and Lambton County under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex and Elgin counties along with the City of London under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the southern portions of Grey and Bruce counties under the Bluewater District School Board. In these areas, snowfall is expected to taper off earlier in the evening, giving road crews more time to clear routes before Monday morning. Whether that cleanup can keep pace with the snowfall will be the deciding factor.

East of Lake Huron, overall snowfall totals are expected to be lower. However, given the amount of snow that has already fallen in recent days, it would not take much additional accumulation to push parts of Huron, Perth and Grey-Bruce into another snow day scenario.

Farther north into Central Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to the Simcoe Central and Simcoe West weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Pembroke under the Renfrew County District School Board. Snowfall totals here are expected to be lower overall, but the snow may not fully wrap up until overnight, leaving limited time for cleanup before the morning decision is made.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Sarnia under the Lambton Kent District School Board, northern Grey and Bruce counties within the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone, and Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These regions are expected to see more modest impacts, generally in the range of 5 to 10 cm of additional snowfall. That amount alone would not normally reach cancellation thresholds, but given the broader regional impacts of this storm, a few surprise decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 22, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Students May Not Return to School This Week in Southern Ontario With Fifth Consecutive Day of Bus Cancellations on Friday

January 22, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/23/bus-cancellations

Lake effect snow and persistent snow squalls continue to show no signs of letting up, as they have spent much of Thursday burying portions of Muskoka, Parry Sound and the Grey Bruce region. This activity is expected to remain focused on these same areas overnight, keeping snowfall rates high and travel conditions dangerous.

By Friday morning, the orientation of the squalls is expected to shift slightly southward. This will allow the most intense lake effect bands to push into Simcoe County and southern portions of Grey Bruce, while still maintaining impacts across areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

Given that many of these regions have already seen significant snowfall throughout the day, including numerous road closures and whiteout conditions, confidence is extremely high that school buses will remain off the roads. In fact, for parts of Grey Bruce, Huron and Perth counties, this stretch of lake effect snow means some students may not end up attending school at all this week, with weather conditions keeping buses parked since Monday.

The areas where school bus cancellations are essentially guaranteed include northern Huron and northern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, both North and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board. These areas sit directly within the core snowbelt, where heavy snowfall, blowing snow and poor visibility will persist through Friday.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe Central weather zones, and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. For Simcoe County, confidence is slightly lower because the most intense squalls are not expected to push that far south until later in the morning, after bus decisions are typically made. In addition, the Simcoe County District School Board has shown a mixed track record when it comes to proactive cancellations. The other regions in this tier sit just outside the most intense lake effect zone, and while cancellations are likely, confidence is not high enough to place them in the highest category.

In the toss up category, where conditions could genuinely go either way, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to Dufferin County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina under the York Region District School Board, North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. These areas are close enough to the snowbelt that impacts are likely, but snowfall intensity and duration remain uncertain enough that cancellations are not a sure thing.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Hastings within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not expected to see significant snowfall overnight or Friday morning, but local road conditions could still be problematic in rural areas with blowing snow.

Outside of these regions, the chance of a snow day on Friday drops off quickly. Most of the worst conditions are expected to remain confined to the snowbelt, and elsewhere across Southern Ontario, school buses should be able to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 21, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Localized School Bus Cancellations Likely on Thursday in Parts of Southern Ontario

January 21, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/22/bus-cancellations

Snow squalls are expected to redevelop this evening across the Bruce Peninsula and then push east of Georgian Bay overnight. These squalls have the potential to be quite intense, bringing periods of near-zero visibility and rapid snowfall accumulation. The greatest impacts are expected across the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions, where totals could approach 25 to 50 cm by the end of Thursday.

With treacherous road conditions likely already in place by the morning commute and snow squall activity expected to persist into the afternoon, it is almost certain that the hardest hit regions will see another day of school bus cancellations on Thursday.

Our highest confidence for a snow day is focused on the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board and North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These two areas are expected to be directly under the most persistent snow squall activity overnight, leaving little doubt that conditions will be unsafe for buses to operate. As a result, we have assigned both regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day.

We also have strong confidence that East Parry Sound, under the Near North District School Board and South Muskoka within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, will see bus cancellations on Thursday. That said, there is slightly more uncertainty with these zones. In East Parry Sound, it remains unclear how far inland the strongest squalls will reach. For South Muskoka, guidance suggests the most intense activity may remain just to the north during the morning before sagging southward later in the day.

While a strongly worded Environment Canada snow squall warning is in effect and would typically be enough to justify cancellations based on expected afternoon conditions, recent decisions show that TLDSB may be willing to roll the dice if a region is not directly under a squall during the morning bus run. Because of this, we have assigned South Muskoka a slightly lower, but still strong, 75 percent chance.

Farther north and east, additional regions that could see a snow day due to Georgian Bay activity include North Bay under the Near North District School Board and Haliburton within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board. These areas may see occasional bursts of snow squall activity on Thursday, but it remains uncertain whether impacts will be persistent enough to reach cancellation thresholds. Because of that uncertainty, we have gone with a 50 percent chance, as it could genuinely go either way.

Across the remainder of Central and Eastern Ontario, the chance of cancellations drops off quickly. Snowfall is expected to be limited in most of these areas on Thursday, and any lingering impacts would mainly be tied to cleanup from the Alberta Clipper rather than active weather. We have maintained a low chance for some rural school boards simply to account for the outside possibility that backroads are still not fully cleared by morning, but this scenario remains very questionable.

UPDATE (8 PM): Following the issuance of a snow squall watch by Environment Canada after this forecast was published, we have made a few adjustments to the probabilities for the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board.

For Bluewater, the Bruce Peninsula has been increased to a 90 percent chance. Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford have been bumped up into the 75 percent category, while Kincardine and Hanover have been raised to a 50 percent chance.

For Avon Maitland, northern Huron and northern Perth counties have also been moved into the 50 percent zone.

All other regions and probabilities in the forecast remain unchanged.

In Southwestern Ontario, the main area of concern continues to be the Bruce Peninsula under the Bluewater District School Board. Ongoing snow squall activity here supports a strong 75 percent chance of bus cancellations, with conditions expected to remain hazardous through much of the day.

Just south of that core snowbelt zone, probabilities begin to taper off. We have assigned a 50 percent chance to Southampton, Owen Sound and Meaford within the Bluewater District School Board, where squalls may clip the area at times.

A 25 percent chance has been assigned to Kincardine and Hanover under Bluewater, along with all regions of the Avon Maitland District School Board. In these areas, snowfall amounts are expected to be lighter, but gusty winds combined with patchy lake effect snow could still lead to localized travel concerns.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, school bus cancellations are not expected on Thursday. Conditions should be manageable in most regions, particularly outside of the snowbelt. We have kept a very low chance for a few rural boards in Southwestern Ontario to account for blowing snow and some light snow moving through during the morning, but confidence in cancellations outside the main snow squall zones remains quite low.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 20, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: School Bus Cancellations Are Likely in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday With Continued Squalls Followed by an Alberta Clipper

January 20, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/21/bus-cancellations

A shift in wind direction has caused snow squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay to lift northward, pushing into the Bruce Peninsula and expanding into the Parry Sound and Muskoka regions.

This lake effect snow is expected to persist overnight and into Wednesday morning, with locally significant snowfall totals possible. In the most intense and persistent bands, some communities could see an additional 30 to 50 cm of snow by the time this activity winds down.

With snowfall of this magnitude falling over a relatively short period of time, travel conditions will deteriorate rapidly. Whiteout conditions, drifting snow and snow-covered rural routes will almost certainly keep school buses off the roads in the hardest hit areas on Wednesday.

At the same time, attention will also be on a separate system moving in from the west. An Alberta Clipper is expected to slide through Southern Ontario beginning Wednesday morning and continue throughout much of the day. While this system is not expected to produce widespread heavy snowfall, most areas should still pick up several centimetres.

In some locations, lake enhancement could boost totals closer to 10 to 15 cm. With snow falling during the school day rather than overnight, this raises the possibility of scattered bus cancellations outside of the core snow squall zones.

The highest confidence for a snow day remains in the areas directly impacted by the most intense lake effect activity. We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all regions of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board within Muskoka, the Parry Sound region under the Near North District School Board, and the Bruce Peninsula within the Bluewater District School Board.

In these areas, snow squalls are expected to remain relentless through Wednesday morning, making travel extremely hazardous. Impacts will be very localized, and once you move outside of these zones, probabilities drop quickly.

Immediately surrounding the core squall region, we have a 50 percent chance for East Parry Sound under the Near North District School Board. Conditions here will be highly dependent on how far north and east the strongest squalls extend overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of the Simcoe County District School Board, the rest of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board and North Bay under the Near North District School Board.

In these areas, cancellations are questionable but cannot be ruled out if lake effect snow pushes farther inland than expected.

For impacts tied to the Alberta Clipper, our highest confidence is focused on Southwestern Ontario. Snow will arrive earlier in the day here, increasing the likelihood of cancellations when snowfall is actively occurring rather than forecasted for later when the decision is made in the morning.

Confidence is also higher across parts of Eastern Ontario along the Lake Ontario shoreline, where snowfall warnings are already in effect, and these school boards tend to be more proactive when poor afternoon conditions are expected.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes the remainder of the Bluewater District School Board outside the Bruce Peninsula, all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board, Northumberland County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, Prince Edward County, South Lennox and Addington, South Frontenac and Kingston within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. In these regions, we expect many boards to opt for cancellations as conditions deteriorate through the day.

Across Deep Southwestern Ontario, we have assigned a 50 percent chance to all regions of the Lambton Kent District School Board and the Greater Essex County District School Board. Snow is expected to be falling during the decision-making window on Wednesday morning, and even without active warnings, snowfall combined with gusty winds could be enough to prompt cancellations.

This 50 percent zone also extends into Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, as well as Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, where snowfall warnings are in effect and could justify proactive cancellations even if snow begins later in the morning.

In Eastern Ontario, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. Here, outcomes will depend heavily on snowfall rates and timing, with some areas potentially seeing enough accumulation during the day to warrant cancellations.

Once you move into more urban school boards across Southwestern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe, confidence drops further. We have given a 25 percent chance to London and Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Georgina under the York Region District School Board and Durham Region.

While some of these areas are included in snowfall warnings, the forecasted amounts may fall just short of the higher thresholds typically required for cancellations. Elgin County, while not urban, is not currently under a snowfall warning, which is why it is lumped into the 25% chance.

Farther east, a 25 percent chance has also been assigned to Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, North Frontenac within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, and the Madawaska region under the Renfrew County District School Board. These areas are not currently under active warnings, and snow is expected to arrive later in the morning. However, if school boards opt for system-wide cancellations rather than region-specific decisions, a few surprises remain possible.

For the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. Snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the high threshold these regions typically require for cancellations.

In the Ottawa Valley, snowfall is expected to be limited and delayed until the middle of the afternoon. Because of this timing and lower expected totals, school bus cancellations are not anticipated in this region on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 19, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Ongoing Snow Squall Activity in Southern Ontario Likely to Cancel School Buses on Tuesday in Some Areas

January 19, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/20/bus-cancellations

As expected, snow squall activity has been hammering the traditional snowbelt regions around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay throughout the day on Monday. This has already led to widespread school bus cancellations and even a handful of school closures in the hardest hit areas. With this lake effect activity expected to persist into Tuesday, it is becoming increasingly clear that some students will be waking up to their second snow day of the week.

Overnight, attention will turn to a particularly intense snow squall that is forecast to stretch across the Bruce Peninsula and then push southeast of Georgian Bay. This includes parts of Simcoe County, southern Muskoka, the Kawartha Lakes region and potentially as far east as Peterborough. At the same time, additional lake effect activity off Lake Huron is expected to continue impacting Huron and Perth counties, keeping snowfall rates elevated through the night and into Tuesday morning.

In addition to the snow, very cold Arctic air will remain firmly in place. Wind chills overnight into Tuesday morning are expected to drop sharply, with parts of Northern and Central Ontario potentially seeing wind chills as low as minus 35 to minus 40. In a few of the more northern and rural school boards, this may be cold enough to raise concerns about cold-related cancellations on top of the ongoing snow squall impacts.

The strongest confidence for a snow day on Tuesday lies across all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board, the Simcoe West and Simcoe North weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, and the northern Kawartha Lakes region within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board.

These areas sit directly within the core of the most persistent snow squall activity and are very likely to see dangerous travel conditions during the morning bus run. As a result, we have assigned these regions a 90 percent chance of a snow day, with school closures even being a possibility in some communities.

A second tier of regions carries a strong likelihood, with a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations. This includes northern portions of Huron and Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe Central weather zone, South Kawartha Lakes and South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board. In these areas, we are leaning toward cancellations, but confidence is slightly lower than in the core snowbelt due to some uncertainty in squall placement and intensity.

In the toss-up category, where outcomes could genuinely go either way, we have included southern Huron and southern Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington County for the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe South weather zone, Georgina within the York Region District School Board, the northern portion of the Durham District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas are either positioned just outside the most intense squall bands or are covered by school boards that typically maintain a higher threshold for cancellations.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to a number of additional regions. This includes the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, the southern York Region District School Board weather zone, Haliburton under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Belleville, South Lennox and Addington, and Kingston under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

We have also included a slight chance for North Bay within the Near North District School Board and areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. In these northern regions, the concern shifts more toward extreme cold, though confidence is lower on whether temperatures will reach the threshold required for cold-related cancellations.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the risk of a snow day on Tuesday drops to low or very low. This includes most urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe, the London area, Deep Southwestern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from the lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 18, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Monday’s Blizzard Risk Expected to Result in Widespread School Bus Cancellations in Southern Ontario

January 18, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/19/bus-cancellations

Intense snow squall activity, combined with bitterly cold wind chills and strong, gusty winds, is expected to create dangerous blizzard conditions across snowbelt regions near Lake Huron, Georgian Bay, Lake Ontario and Lake Erie on Monday.

Environment Canada has issued a range of winter weather alerts in response to this setup, including a strongly worded orange-level blizzard warning for areas east of Lake Huron as well as Prince Edward County. In these regions, wind gusts of 70 to 90 km/h combined with snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm are expected to lead to near-zero visibility and extremely hazardous travel conditions.

With warnings of this severity in place, it is difficult to see how school buses could operate safely in the hardest hit areas. Blizzard conditions of this nature pose a significant safety risk for anyone on the roads, particularly during the afternoon hours when conditions are expected to be at their worst.

Because of this, we have near certainty of a snow day in several regions. A 90 percent chance of school bus cancellations has been assigned to all areas covered by the Bluewater District School Board and the Avon Maitland District School Board, along with Wellington County under the Upper Grand District School Board and Prince Edward County within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions sit directly within the blizzard warning area, where travel is expected to be extremely dangerous.

While not under the blizzard warning itself, we have also assigned a 90 percent chance to the Parry Sound region within the Near North District School Board, as well as Belleville and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These areas remain under snow squall warnings, which on their own are typically more than enough to prompt cancellations. Given the expected intensity and duration of the squalls, cancellations here appear highly likely.

A strong likelihood zone, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day, includes Kingston under Tri-Board, Northumberland County within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the southern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, Dufferin County within the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe West weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board, North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, and all areas covered by the Rainbow District School Board. We are leaning toward cancellations in most of these regions, although some fall within boards that tend to be stricter with snow day decisions or sit just outside the most intense squall bands.

The probability drops off fairly quickly once you move outside the core snow squall risk zone, as lake effect impacts will be highly localized. In the toss-up category, where there is a 50 percent chance of a snow day, we have included the northern Niagara Region under the District School Board of Niagara, the Grand Erie District School Board, the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the Simcoe Central and Simcoe North weather zones, South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and North Bay within the Near North District School Board.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, northern Peel Region, the Simcoe South weather zone, Haliburton and North Kawartha Lakes within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough County under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Central Lennox and Addington, and South Frontenac under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. These regions are not currently under active warnings but remain close enough to the snow squall zones that a surprise cancellation cannot be ruled out if Environment Canada expands alert areas by Monday morning.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, including Deep Southwestern Ontario, much of the Greater Toronto Area and the Ottawa Valley, the chance of a snow day remains low to very low. These regions are not expected to see significant impacts from lake effect snow, and travel conditions should remain manageable enough for school buses to operate as normal.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 15, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Snowstorm Aftermath May Cancel School Buses for a Second Day on Friday in Parts of Southern Ontario

January 15, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/16/bus-cancellations

Many school buses were cancelled and even some schools were closed across Southern Ontario on Thursday as a high-impact snowstorm delivered widespread snowfall totals of 20 to 40 cm in some areas.

While the storm has begun to wind down heading into the evening, cleanup efforts are only just getting underway. With this amount of snow on the ground, it often takes more than a single night to fully dig out, especially on rural roads and backroads where plowing and treatment can take longer.

Because of this, we are expecting some lingering impacts for the Friday morning commute. The greatest concern lies across Eastern Ontario, where snowfall is only tapering off this evening. These areas will have significantly less time overnight to clear roads ahead of the morning bus run, increasing the likelihood of localized travel issues.

As a result, there is a chance that some school boards may opt for a second straight day of school bus cancellations on Friday. That said, this will be highly dependent on local road conditions and how effective overnight cleanup efforts are in each individual region.

Our highest confidence for additional cancellations is focused on the more rural zones within Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. This includes Central Hastings, North and Central Lennox and Addington, and North and Central Frontenac.

These areas rely heavily on rural bus routes that can remain snow-covered for longer periods following major storms. Because of this, we have assigned these regions a 75 percent chance of school bus cancellations on Friday.

Surrounding school boards with a heavy dependence on rural transportation are placed in the 50 percent category, where conditions could genuinely go either way. This includes areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board, the Renfrew County District School Board, including the Renfrew and Madawaska regions, the remaining zones within Tri-Board, and Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board. In these regions, the final decision will likely come down to how quickly secondary roads can be cleared overnight.

For the Ottawa region, we have assigned a 25 percent chance. While Ottawa is more urban in nature and primary roads are expected to be in good shape by morning, the sheer volume of snow that fell may still present challenges on residential streets and bus routes. Whether that leads to cancellations remains uncertain.

A 25 percent chance has also been assigned to the Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton regions within the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Clarington under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and the northern portion of the Durham District School Board. These areas either lean more rural or did not see the most extreme snowfall totals from this storm. At this time, we are leaning toward buses running, but a few localized cancellations cannot be ruled out.

As you move farther west and north, confidence increases that roads will be in better shape by Friday morning. Snow tapered off earlier in the day in these areas, giving crews more time to clear routes. This includes a large portion of Southwestern Ontario as well as communities surrounding the Golden Horseshoe.

For these regions, we have gone with a widespread low to very low chance of school bus cancellations. No specific school board stands out as being particularly vulnerable, as outcomes will depend almost entirely on local road conditions. Boards covering more rural territory have been assigned closer to a 10 percent chance, while the more urban school boards across the Greater Toronto Area sit closer to 5 percent.

Across northern portions of Central Ontario, including areas covered by the Near North District School Board, the Rainbow District School Board and the Algoma District School Board, we have assigned a low 10 percent chance. Temperatures are expected to be very cold, but not cold enough to typically prompt cancellations on their own. Still, conditions are close enough to that threshold that a few isolated decisions cannot be completely ruled out.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 14, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Major Snowstorm Almost Certain to Cancel School Buses in Much of Southern Ontario on Thursday

January 14, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/15/bus-cancellations

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A last-minute shift in forecast models has placed much of Southern Ontario in the crosshairs of a prolonged snowstorm expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue through much of Thursday. This system has the potential to be impactful, with snowfall totals exceeding 20 cm in some areas by the time it winds down late Thursday.

Environment Canada has responded by issuing widespread snowfall warnings stretching from parts of Eastern and Central Ontario through the Golden Horseshoe. At the same time, snow squall warnings have been issued for areas south of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, adding another layer of complexity to this already active setup.

In addition to the snow, very cold Arctic air is expected to surge into Southern Ontario overnight into Thursday morning. Wind chills could approach minus 30 degrees in some areas, especially during the early morning hours.

This combination of heavy snow, blowing snow and dangerous cold is almost certain to disrupt travel and will very likely lead to widespread school bus cancellations. In some regions, school closures may also need to be considered.

The highest confidence for a snow day is found across the more rural school boards that are typically the most sensitive to adverse winter weather. With active snowfall warnings in place and significant accumulation expected, thresholds will almost certainly be met.

We have assigned a 90 percent chance to all areas covered by Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, all of Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, the South Kawartha Lakes region under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board.

A much broader area falls into the strong likelihood category, with a 75 percent chance of a snow day. This includes the Upper Canada District School Board and the Renfrew County District School Board, Haliburton County and North Kawartha Lakes under TLDSB, North Durham within the Durham District School Board, York Region District School Board, the Simcoe Central, Simcoe South and Simcoe West zones under the Simcoe County District School Board, northern Peel Region, northern Halton, Hamilton-Wentworth, Niagara Region, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Waterloo Region, Oxford County and Middlesex County under the Thames Valley District School Board, Lambton County within the Lambton Kent District School Board, Perth County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, and the Hanover, Meaford, Owen Sound and Bruce Peninsula areas within the Bluewater District School Board.

While we expect most of these school boards to cancel buses, there remains a small chance that a few could attempt to operate if snowfall rates are lighter than expected early Thursday morning. That said, confidence remains high that cancellations will be widespread within this zone.

For more urban school boards, confidence becomes less certain. Areas including Ottawa under the Ottawa Student Transportation Authority, southern Durham Region within the Durham District School Board, Toronto District School Board, southern Peel Region, southern Halton, and the Grand Erie District School Board have been assigned a 50 percent chance. The snowfall amounts currently mentioned in Environment Canada alerts sit right on the threshold that typically prompts cancellations for these boards. Some forecast guidance suggests totals could exceed what is currently advertised, and if that materializes, cancellations would become more likely in these areas.

Other regions sitting firmly in the toss-up category include Simcoe North, South Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Southampton and Kincardine within the Bluewater District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, London and Elgin County for the Thames Valley District School Board, and Chatham-Kent and Sarnia within the Lambton Kent District School Board. These areas sit closer to the edge of the heaviest snowfall, and it remains questionable whether enough accumulation will occur to prompt cancellations.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to Essex County within the Greater Essex County District School Board. At this time, no weather alerts are in place for this region, but if snowfall amounts trend higher than expected overnight, a limited number of cancellations could occur.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to North Muskoka under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, along with Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board. These regions are expected to remain largely outside the core of the storm, but if the system tracks farther north than currently forecast, cancellations could become more likely, particularly given Near North’s tendency to respond proactively to winter weather.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 13, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Flash Freeze Risk Brings Slight Chance of School Bus Cancellations in Parts of Southern Ontario on Wednesday

January 13, 2026/ Brennen Perry

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Rapidly plunging temperatures followed by the development of snow squall activity are expected across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday, creating a potentially tricky setup when it comes to school transportation.

As a strong cold front sweeps across the region beginning Wednesday morning, temperatures are expected to fall sharply in a short period of time. In some areas, readings could drop from a few degrees above freezing to well below minus 10 degrees within just a few hours. This raises the risk of a flash freeze, particularly on untreated roads, sidewalks and rural routes.

Because of this flash freeze potential, there is a possibility that some school boards may choose to cancel buses, especially in rural areas that are more sensitive to icy conditions. These boards rely heavily on extensive backroad routes, where surfaces can quickly become dangerous once temperatures drop below freezing.

One of the complicating factors with this setup is timing. In many parts of Southern Ontario, temperatures are not expected to begin falling sharply until the late morning or early afternoon. That means any cancellations would need to be made proactively, based on expected conditions later in the day, rather than what is occurring at the time of the morning bus run. Historically, this type of proactive decision-making can vary significantly from one school board to another.

If Environment Canada issues a flash freeze warning by early Wednesday morning, the probability of cancellations would increase fairly rapidly. Flash freeze warnings tend to carry more weight with school boards, as they highlight a rapid deterioration in road conditions that can catch drivers off guard.

At this time, the highest chance for bus cancellations includes all regions covered by the Bluewater District School Board and the Near North District School Board. We have assigned these areas a slight chance, around 25 percent. These boards are expected to be among the first to experience the temperature drop as the cold front pushes in from the northwest.

Current indications suggest the front could arrive as early as 4 to 6 AM in these areas, which increases the likelihood that icy conditions could already be developing during the morning commute. In addition, Environment Canada snow squall watches mentioning squalls developing later in the day may give the Bluewater District School Board additional reason to consider cancellations.

Across the rest of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario, we have gone with a widespread low to very low chance of school bus cancellations, generally in the 5 to 10 percent range. The slightly higher end of that range is focused on regions under snow squall watches or rural school boards that historically respond more cautiously to flash freeze situations.

At this point, we do not believe the snow squall watches alone will be enough to prompt cancellations on Wednesday, as the bulk of the squall activity is expected to begin after the school day has ended. However, this setup does raise concerns heading into Thursday, when snow squalls are expected to ramp up late Wednesday and continue into the following day.

For the remainder of Southern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations remains under 5 percent. Weather conditions in these areas are not expected to reach the threshold that typically leads to cancellations, and most school boards should be able to operate normally on Wednesday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 12, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Tuesday, January 13, 2026

January 12, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Aside from some light flurries east of Georgian Bay extending into parts of Eastern Ontario, which are expected to taper off through the evening, no impactful winter weather is anticipated overnight and during the school day on Tuesday.

Because of this, we are not expecting any school bus cancellations, and all regions across Southern Ontario have been assigned less than a 5 percent chance.

There remains a very small chance of isolated cancellations in parts of Central and Eastern Ontario, particularly within rural school boards, if backroads become icy as temperatures hover near the freezing mark.

However, this would come down to highly localized road conditions rather than active weather. Since this type of scenario is not directly driven by forecasted weather impacts, it is not factored into our snow day forecast.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 11, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Monday, January 12, 2026

January 11, 2026/ Brennen Perry

No major winter weather is expected across Southern Ontario on Monday, which means school bus cancellations are very unlikely in most areas.

A weak system, being enhanced by Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, may bring a few centimetres of snowfall during the morning and early afternoon. This could briefly reduce visibility in some localized areas, particularly closer to the lakes.

That said, snowfall amounts are not expected to reach the threshold that typically prompts cancellations. If any decisions are made, they would most likely be in parts of Grey-Bruce, the Parry Sound area or Muskoka. For that reason, we have assigned these regions a low to very low chance, but the overall expectation is that buses will run as normal.

For the rest of Southern Ontario, the chance of a snow day remains under 5 percent on Monday.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 08, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow Day’ Forecast for Friday, January 9, 2026

January 08, 2026/ Brennen Perry

Milder weather is expected across Southern Ontario throughout Friday, with temperatures remaining well above the freezing mark.

Any precipitation that develops on Friday will fall as plain rain and is not expected to create any travel issues or hazardous road conditions.

Because of this, all of Southern Ontario carries less than a 5 percent chance of a snow day on Friday.

It looks like homework is in the forecast for tonight!

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 07, 2026

Southern Ontario: ‘Snow/Fog Day’ Forecast for Thursday, January 8, 2026

January 07, 2026/ Brennen Perry

While no major winter weather conditions are expected to impact travel across Southern Ontario on Thursday morning, weather conditions may still be less than ideal in some areas. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight and could linger into the early morning hours, particularly in rural regions.

If fog becomes dense enough, it could significantly reduce visibility on roadways. This raises the possibility of a few scattered school bus cancellations, mainly in parts of Southwestern, Central and Eastern Ontario. These regions tend to be more sensitive to fog-related impacts, especially where rural routes, open fields and low-lying areas allow visibility to drop quickly.

That said, confidence remains fairly low when it comes to pinpointing exactly where cancellations may occur. Fog events can be highly localized, and small shifts in wind or temperature overnight can make the difference between clear conditions and dense fog by morning. Because of that uncertainty, this is not a high-confidence forecast for any one region.

To account for this, we have assigned a widespread 25 percent chance for what could be considered a “fog day” on Thursday in areas where school boards have historically shown a willingness to cancel when visibility becomes an issue. This includes Lambton and Chatham-Kent under the Lambton Kent District School Board, Middlesex, Elgin and Oxford counties within the Thames Valley District School Board, and all regions covered by the Avon Maitland District School Board.

This 25 percent zone also includes Wellington and Dufferin counties under the Upper Grand District School Board, most of the Bluewater District School Board, excluding in-city routes in Owen Sound, Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, and North and Central Hastings, along with North and Central Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services. While most of these regions will likely see buses running as normal, a few localized cancellations are possible depending on where fog is most persistent.

Outside of these areas, the rest of Southern Ontario carries a low to very low chance of school bus cancellations. A surprise decision cannot be completely ruled out, but confidence is low that fog will become dense enough or widespread enough to justify cancellations in these regions.

Urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe and the Ottawa area are especially unlikely to see any disruptions. Fog rarely leads to cancellations in highly urbanized regions, where road networks are better lit, more heavily travelled and less dependent on long rural bus routes.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 06, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Some Parts of Southern Ontario May See a Third Day of Bus Cancellations on Wednesday

January 06, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/7/bus-cancellations

A messy system has been delivering a whiplash of winter weather across Southern Ontario throughout the day on Tuesday. Precipitation has ranged from freezing rain to ice pellets, with conditions expected to transition over to heavier snow in some areas through the evening.

While the core of this system is forecast to wind down later this evening and into the early overnight hours, its impacts are expected to linger into Wednesday morning. For regions that have dealt with prolonged periods of freezing rain, there is little indication of a meaningful warmup overnight. This means any ice that has formed on untreated surfaces is unlikely to melt, leaving roads, sidewalks and driveways slippery heading into the morning commute.

Because of this, we have fairly high confidence that some school bus cancellations will occur on Wednesday, particularly in rural areas with extensive backroad networks. These routes can remain icy well after precipitation ends, especially when temperatures stay below freezing. In addition to icing concerns, thick fog is expected to develop in parts of Southwestern Ontario overnight, which could further reduce visibility and contribute to cancellations or delays.

The highest chance for a snow or ice day includes Kingston, South Frontenac, South and Central Lennox and Addington, and Belleville under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, along with Peterborough and Northumberland counties within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board.

These regions tend to be among the most sensitive to poor backroad conditions due to their large rural coverage. They are also expected to see freezing rain linger the longest, leaving less time for road crews to fully clear conditions before the morning bus run. As a result, we have assigned these areas a 75 percent chance of bus cancellations.

Much of the remaining rural portion of Central Ontario into Southwestern Ontario falls into the toss-up category. We expect several school boards in this zone to keep buses off the roads, but decisions will likely come down to highly localized road conditions and how much additional icing occurs overnight.

This includes the remainder of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, the Madawaska region within the Renfrew County District School Board, most of the Trillium Lakelands District School Board excluding North Muskoka, and the Simcoe North weather zone under the Simcoe County District School Board.

Rural school boards across Southwestern Ontario may also be impacted by the development of thick fog overnight, combined with lingering icy conditions in higher elevation areas that saw freezing rain earlier Tuesday.

Because of this, we have also assigned a 50 percent chance to several boards in this region, although confidence here is slightly lower. Outcomes will depend on how dense and widespread the fog becomes by morning.

This group includes Dufferin and Wellington counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, Grey County under the Bluewater District School Board, Perth County for the Avon Maitland District School Board, and Middlesex and Oxford counties within the Thames Valley District School Board.

A slight chance, around 25 percent, has been assigned to the rural portions of the Ottawa Valley, including areas covered by the Upper Canada District School Board and the Renfrew County District School Board. Icing here has been more limited, making cancellations questionable, but a few isolated decisions cannot be ruled out if conditions deteriorate overnight.

We have also assigned a 25 percent chance to the remainder of Simcoe County, along with Georgina under the York Region District School Board. These areas are more urban and typically maintain a higher threshold for cancellations, so decisions will depend on whether road conditions are poor enough early Wednesday morning to justify keeping buses off the roads.

In Southwestern Ontario, a 25 percent chance has been given to the Waterloo Region District School Board, Guelph within the Upper Grand District School Board, Elgin County under the Thames Valley District School Board, Lambton County for the Lambton Kent District School Board, Huron County within the Avon Maitland District School Board, and southern Bruce County under the Bluewater District School Board.

Patchy fog is possible in these regions, but confidence in its extent is lower, and several of these boards are less likely to cancel based on fog or marginal backroad issues alone.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including Ottawa and the more urban school boards throughout the Golden Horseshoe and into Deep Southwestern Ontario, the chance of bus cancellations remains low.

That said, if there are any surprises, they may come from parts of Deep Southwestern Ontario, including Windsor, Sarnia and Chatham. Some forecast guidance suggests fog could extend into these areas overnight, which may prompt a small number of unexpected cancellations if visibility becomes an issue.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 05, 2026

‘Snow (Ice) Day’ Forecast: Risk of Freezing Rain on Tuesday Could Cancel School Buses in Parts of Southern Ontario

January 05, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/6/bus-cancellations

A messy and potentially disruptive system is expected to move through Southern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing with it the risk of several hours of freezing rain developing from the late morning into the afternoon.

Environment Canada has issued widespread freezing rain warnings and special weather statements ahead of this system, highlighting the threat of icing beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through much of the day. With freezing rain notoriously difficult to deal with on untreated surfaces, there is growing concern that some school boards may opt to cancel buses, particularly across rural areas northwest of the Greater Toronto Area and into portions of Central and Eastern Ontario.

What makes this event especially tricky from a school transportation perspective is the timing. The bulk of the freezing rain is not expected to begin until after the morning bus run has already wrapped up. That means any cancellations would need to be made proactively, based largely on Environment Canada alerts and the expectation of deteriorating conditions during the afternoon dismissal. Historically, that level of proactiveness can vary quite a bit from one school board to another.

Because of that uncertainty, we have capped the highest probability at 50 percent, reflecting the fact that this could truly go either way. This 50 percent zone includes Middlesex and Oxford counties under the Thames Valley District School Board, Perth County within the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties for the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Kincardine, Hanover and Meaford regions under the Bluewater District School Board. These areas are more rural in nature, tend to respond more cautiously to freezing rain threats, and are currently covered by freezing rain warnings. While no single region stands out as a sure thing for cancellations, we do have fairly strong confidence that at least a few boards will declare an “ice day” on Tuesday.

We have also included Peterborough and Northumberland counties under the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, along with the southern portions of Tri-Board Student Transportation Services, in the 50 percent category. These areas are currently under special weather statements rather than full warnings, but these school boards have a history of being particularly proactive when freezing rain is involved. In some cases, even a special weather statement can be enough to prompt cancellations.

A broader area has been assigned a 25 percent chance, covering much of Southwestern Ontario and extending into parts of Central and Eastern Ontario. This includes the Greater Essex County District School Board, the Lambton Kent District School Board, London and Elgin County within the Thames Valley District School Board, Huron County under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Owen Sound, Southampton and the Bruce Peninsula for the Bluewater District School Board, Waterloo Region, Guelph under the Upper Grand District School Board, the Simcoe County District School Board, North and South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, and the remaining portions of Tri-Board. In these areas, freezing rain is either expected to be patchy or brief, but given the timing and potential for slick roads, a few surprise cancellations cannot be ruled out.

Outside of this zone, including the more urban school boards across the Golden Horseshoe, the Ottawa Valley and Northeastern Ontario, the chance of school bus cancellations drops to low or very low. In some cases, these regions are simply too far removed from the core freezing rain threat, as is the case for parts of Northeastern Ontario and the Ottawa Valley. In other cases, the boards are highly urbanized and typically require more widespread or severe icing before cancellations are considered.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

January 04, 2026

‘Snow Day’ Forecast: Heavy Snow May Delay Return From Holiday Break for Some Students in Southern Ontario on Monday

January 04, 2026/ Brennen Perry

For an updated list of school bus cancellations & school closures, please visit our live article: https://instantweatherinc.com/article/2026/1/5/bus-cancellations

After a two-week break from school across Southern Ontario, it’s understandable that many students and parents are ready for a return to normal with the first official school day of 2026. Unfortunately, the timing is far from ideal. An approaching Alberta Clipper is expected to sweep across the region overnight Sunday into Monday, delivering a burst of heavy snow right during the height of the morning commute.

Environment Canada has already begun issuing widespread snowfall warnings ahead of this system, highlighting the potential for 10 to 15 cm of snow by Monday, along with periods of reduced visibility. With snow falling at a steady rate through the early morning hours, it’s quite possible that winter break may be extended by at least one more day in some parts of Southern Ontario.

The highest confidence for a snow day sits squarely within the Bluewater District School Board. This entire region is expected to see the most snowfall from the Alberta Clipper, on top of already significant snowpack left behind by persistent lake effect snow over the past week. Wind gusts approaching 40 to 50 km/h may also lead to areas of blowing snow, especially in open and rural locations.

With heavy snow beginning overnight and continuing into Monday morning, conditions are likely to deteriorate quickly. Because of this, we are leaning strongly toward school bus cancellations across the entire Bluewater region.

Surrounding school boards fall into a more uncertain category. Northern portions of Huron and Perth counties under the Avon Maitland District School Board, Wellington and Dufferin counties within the Upper Grand District School Board, and the Simcoe West, Central and South weather zones under the Simcoe County District School Board have all been assigned a 50 percent chance of a snow day.

These boards tend to operate with a higher threshold for cancellations, and while 10 to 15 cm of snow is impactful, it sits close to that decision line. Confidence here will depend heavily on snowfall rates during the morning commute and how quickly conditions deteriorate.

Farther south and east, the heavy snow threat will extend into portions of the Greater Toronto Area, including Peel Region, York Region, the City of Toronto and Durham Region. While these areas are expected to see accumulating snow, the more urban nature of these boards typically results in fewer cancellations unless snowfall becomes extreme. As a result, these regions carry a very low to low chance of school bus cancellations on Monday.

To the north and east of the core snow zone, we have assigned a 25 percent chance for several school boards that cover large rural areas and are more sensitive to winter travel conditions.

This includes Parry Sound and East Parry Sound within the Near North District School Board, Simcoe North under the Simcoe County District School Board, South Muskoka along with North and South Kawartha Lakes under the Trillium Lakelands District School Board, Peterborough and Northumberland counties within the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board, and Central Hastings, Belleville and Central and South Lennox and Addington under Tri-Board Student Transportation Services.

While we are leaning toward a normal school day for most of these regions, uncertainty remains given the potential impact on untreated rural roads during the morning commute.

Elsewhere across Southern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, Deep Southwestern Ontario and areas along the Lake Erie shoreline, the chance of a snow day appears fairly unlikely. In the Ottawa Valley, snow is expected to arrive later in the day, after the morning bus run. For regions closer to Lake Erie, snowfall amounts should remain minimal as the system tracks farther north, limiting impacts.

As always with Alberta Clippers, small shifts in timing or intensity could make a noticeable difference Monday morning. We’ll continue to monitor conditions closely and provide updates as needed, but for now, the return to school may be delayed for some, while others should prepare for a snowy start to the week.

Disclaimer: Instant Weather has zero authority when it comes to bus and school closures.

It is completely up to the school boards, bus companies, local authorities, and parents to decide what is best for their children. This is our best guess based on our forecast.

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